Catch Up On the Latest SoCal Market Trends in Our October 2019 Regional Glance

Our October 2019 regional glance covers the general trends emerging around the major Southern California markets. With fall officially here, some interesting patterns are starting to emerge, especially in the coastal markets which are seeing some year-over-year growth in critical metrics. The Coachella Valley market is heading into prime season, and so far the numbers are going in the right direction, potentially paving the way for another fantastic real estate  season. Please keep in mind as you read through the summaries below that they are representative of an entire region and do not necessarily detail what is happening in your local community. If you are looking for information on a specific city or neighborhood, please connect with one of our Bennion Deville Homes real estate specialists. We look forward to opening doors and unlocking possibilities for you.

Coachella Valley October 2019 Regional Glance

The Coachella Valley market is positioning itself for another strong season of sales. The average sale price for a home is up despite a significant bump in inventory levels. There were fewer homes sold in October 2019 compared to October of 2018, but those homes that sold went at a slightly faster sales pace and for around the same listing discount. With more properties hitting the market and inventory levels steady at a moderate 4.8 months, the Coachella Valley looks poised for another strong fall and winter real estate market as seasonal residents and visitors return to the warmth of the desert for an extended stay. The key metric to monitor is how the rising inventory affects home prices. As one of the few remaining Southern California markets that is still affordable to first time home buyers, and a desirable place to call home for part-time residents from colder parts of the globe, the desert has many factors working in its favor that indicate the market will stay hot for the foreseeable future.

October 2019 saw 727 homes change owners, an 8.1% drop from the same period last year. Additionally, the total sales volume for the market finished with just shy of $345 million, a 1.2% decrease from October 2018. Helping to ease the year-over-year gaps between activity and sales volume is the average home price, which finished 7.4% higher this year at $473,900. Similarly, the average price per square foot climbed by 5.4% to $240.10. The average days on market, or listing time, finished with 80 days on average to sell a home, a 3.6% drop compared to October 2018. The listing discount, or sold price versus list price, slipped a tad by 0.1% and finished at 96.98%. The market finished out the month with 3,515 homes for sale, a 15.8% jump over last year’s total. Overall, there is a 4.8-month supply of homes on the market, a 26.3% jump from last year. A balanced market is considered 6 months, so although the inventory level is improving, the demand for homes still outweighs the supply and could be causing upward pressure on home prices.

Orange County October 2019 Regional Glance

Orange County had a nice October after experiencing steady growth throughout the summer. Home prices saw a healthy increase, potentially due to a big drop in available inventory and increased market activity compared to October of 2018. The market time (average days on market) is up slightly but the listing discount (sold price versus list price) improved modestly, meaning offers came in closer to asking price than the previous period. Additionally, there are only 2.3 months of inventory available on the market, creating a crunch that could help keep home prices inflated over the coming months. Interestingly, market activity was up by almost 10% despite rising home prices, indicating that demand remains strong to live in one of Southern California’s premier regions even as the average closed sale price of a home pushes toward $1 million.

October saw 2,556 homes sold, a 9.9% leap over the same period last year. This activity accounted for almost $2.37 billion in sales volume, a 14.4% climb from October 2018. The average closed sale price of a home was $927,100 across the market, a 4.1% increase from last year. Likewise, the average price per square foot increased by 4.7% to $488.80. The market time (average days on market) finished 9.3% higher, clocking in at 47 days on average to sell a home. The listing discount, or sold price versus list price, finished at 97.68%, a 0.4% increase from last October. The market finished with 5,977 homes for sale, a 16.9% drop year-over-year. Overall, there is a 2.3-month supply of homes on the market, a 25.8% decrease from last year.

San Diego County October 2019 Regional Glance

The best way to describe the real estate market across San Diego County in the month of October is consistent. Home prices increased by less than 1%, the number of closed homes was up by less than 1%, and the sales pace was the same. However, as flat as those numbers appear, some of the peripheral indicators show signs of some quiet market adjustment. Inventory plummeted by over 20%, and the listing discount (sold price versus list price) went up by more than 1%, a significant increase. Although home prices remain relatively flat year-over-year, the big drop in inventory levels and improved leverage for sellers signals that home prices may not be done climbing, and the change may not be as gradual as in previous months. This trend emerged throughout the summer and it continues into the fall months. With less inventory to meet demand, we expect to see the negotiating power that buyers had earlier this year slip away. Anyone in the market for a new property in San Diego needs to come prepared with their best offer in order to successfully land the home they want.

San Diego County had a total of 2,820 homes close in October, a 0.8% increase year-over-year. That slight uptick in activity led to a 1.6% increase in sales volume, ending the month with a final tally of just over $2 billion. The average closed sale price for a home around the county was up slightly (0.8%), coming in at $714,000. The average price per square foot saw a very small decline (0.1%) and finished at $395.40. The sales pace, or average days on the market, was the same year-over-year, finishing at 33 days on average to sell a home. The listing discount, or sold price versus list price, bumped up by 1.1% to 97.76%. There were 6,038 homes for sale to close out the month, a 21.4% decline from the same period last year. Overall, there is a 2.1-month supply of homes on the market, a 22.2% drop year-over-year.

San Gabriel Valley October 2019 Regional Glance

In our August recap, we predicted that the market was at a fork in the road, and it all hinged on inventory levels. October decided on a direction, which led to a month that the market hasn’t seen in some time. Prices experienced a slight bump, market activity went up, and inventory saw a sharp decline. The underlying stats support this market direction as sustainable, even if the days on market are up slightly, the listing discount (sales prices versus list price) saw a modest increase and the months of inventory remains at a paltry 2.4 months. As noted with our coastal Southern California markets, a sudden and sharp decline in inventory is driving a lot of this price improvement, however, if levels remain where they are, the simple economic principles of supply and demand indicate that prices will remain high, and even increase as long as there are buyers willing to meet market prices.

In the month of October, there were 626 home sales in the San Gabriel Valley, an 8.1% increase year-over-year. The sales volume from those transactions accounted for a 9.1% increase to over $516 million. The average closed sale price finished the month 0.9% higher than the same period last year, coming in at $824,800. The average price per square foot saw a small drop of 0.2%, finishing at $411.70 for the current month. The average days on market jumped by 7.1% to 45 days on average to sell a home. The listing discount, or sold price versus list price, increased by 0.5% to 98.52%. Inventory levels cratered by 16.6% compared to October 2018, finishing the month with 1,482 homes for sale. Overall, there is a 2.4-month supply of homes on the market, a 22.6% decrease from the same period last year.