Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance For Southern California Real Estate
Get the scoop on how the year finished with the Bennion Deville Homes Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance
The Bennion Deville Homes Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance covers how each of our major markets finished out the year.

See How the Year Finished with Our Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

Our fourth quarter 2019 regional glance for Southern California examines the trends that closed out the year. Every major market that we cover saw incredible year-over-year gains in activity despite drops in inventory across the board. Heading into the start of the New Year, we will be monitoring how this decline in inventory across Southern California affects the market. As you read through this recap, please note that the market summaries take into account all of the activity in a given region. If you are seeking information on what’s happening in your city, community, or neighborhood, please reach out to a Bennion Deville Homes real estate professional to explore your options. We look forward to opening doors and unlocking possibilities for you.

Coachella Valley Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

In the third quarter regional glance, we predicted that home prices around the desert were due to go up after closer examination of the peripheral market stats. Luckily for homeowners across the Coachella Valley that forecast came true. The Southern California desert market closed out the year with more activity when comparing year-over-year numbers, including a much larger sales volume and a healthy boost in the average sale price of a home. The sales pace was faster compared to last year, and also compared to last quarter, despite inventory dropping by almost 10% compared to Q4 of 2018. The quarter-to-quarter numbers show the extreme seasonality of the desert market, with a huge influx of inventory, a big drop in sales activity, but consistent positive movement in price gains, listing discount (sold price vs. list price), and sales. With 2020 upon us, the desert market is primed to see prices continue to climb, buoyed by a declining inventory. The other trend to keep an eye on is a delayed market taking shape as buyers try to wait out sellers during the peak sales season. Last year’s market really took off in May and June, traditionally slower months of the year.

In the fourth quarter 2019 there were 2,176 homes sold, a 2.3% boost compared to the same quarter last year but a 13.2% decline from third quarter 2019. Similarly, those sales accounted for $1.05 billion in sales volume, a 6.8% increase from the same quarter last year but a 9.9% decrease from third quarter. The average sale price of a home finished the year at $482,100 which is a 4.5% improvement over Q4 2018 and a 3.7% increase from Q3 2019. The average price per square foot finished at $242.60, a 4.5% jump from the same quarter last year and a 4.8% improvement from the previous quarter. The year wrapped up with 3,071 homes for sale, a 9.7% decline from the same point last year and a 12% improvement over the previous quarter. The sales pace, or average days on market, clocked in at 73 days to sell a home, a 7.6% decrease (faster) from the same quarter last year and an 8.8% decrease from the quarter prior. The listing discount, or sold price versus list price, came in at 96.85%, a 0.1% improvement from the same quarter last year and the previous quarter. Overall, there are 4.2 months of inventory available, a 12.5% decline from the same quarter last year and a 27.3% leap from the prior quarter. A balanced market is considered to have a 6-month supply of inventory, so the desert market conditions currently favor sellers.

Orange County Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

After a year of ups and downs, the Orange County market concludes the year in the same fashion with some uncertainty as to where the market is headed. Comparing the market year-over-year, there was much more activity despite a sizable disparity between homes for sale. Comparing the numbers quarter-over-quarter isn’t as positive, but there is seasonality at play – summer is traditionally the busiest time of the year, and the holidays are usually the slowest. The stats we are going to keep an eye on are average home price and sales pace. Even with a big drop in available inventory, home prices remained about the same year-over-year (slightly down), while the sales pace (average days on market) went up. The year’s swings aside, the peripheral stats of declining inventory, slowing sales pace, and slight drops to average home price indicate that the Orange County market could be headed for a bit of a regression in price to start the new decade. However, there is plenty of reason for optimism that home prices can stay steady, and possibly improve. The listing discount (sale price versus list price) improved, meaning sellers earned closer to asking price than previous quarters, and inventory levels remain razor-thin at only 1.6 months, indicating a market that heavily favors sellers.

Across Orange County in fourth quarter 2019, there were 7,256 homes sold, an 18.1% increase from the same time last year and an 11.8% drop from the previous quarter. Those sales accounted for a sales volume of $6.45 billion, an 18% jump from the same quarter last year and a 13.1% decline from last quarter. The average closed sale price of a home finished at $889,000 which was slightly down (0.1%) from the same time last year and a 1.5% decline from the previous quarter. The average price per square foot was also down across the board, finishing at $466.20, an 0.6% decline year-over-year and a 1.2% decrease from the prior quarter. Inventory finished the year with 3,807 homes for sale, a 33.2% drop from the same quarter last year and a 43% decline from last quarter. The average days on the market, or sales pace, finished at 49 days to sell a home, a 6.5% increase (slower) compared to last year and an 11.4% increase over last quarter. The listing discount finished at 97.64%, a 0.9% improvement over the same period last year and a 0.1% increase from last quarter. Overall, there are 1.6 months of inventory available on the market, a 42.9% decline from the same time last year and a 33.3% drop from last quarter.

San Diego Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

The San Diego market ended the year pretty much the same way it finished the third quarter. Large drops in inventory levels led to slight increases in average sale price and quicker or neutral sales paces. The market finished the year with a 1.6-month supply of homes, a very low number that should keep sales prices stable or even help them go up to start the year, as there is not enough supply to meet the demand for homes. The peripheral stats also support this thought, with the sales pace (average days on market), listing discount (sold price vs. list price), and price per square foot either improving or hanging around the same levels year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter. As the new year pushes on, we will watch inventory levels and how they affect the rest of the market’s key indicators, average closed sale price most importantly to homeowners.

In fourth quarter 2019 there were 8,239 homes that changed owners, a 9.9% increase year-over-year and a 14% decline from the previous quarter. Those sales accounted for $5.89 billion in sales volume, a healthy 12% boost from last year and a 13.1% decline from last quarter. The average closed sale price of a home finished the year at $714,700 accounting for a 1.9% increase from last year and a 1.1% bump from the previous quarter. The average price per square foot finished at $393.20, a 1.3% bump from the same time last year and a 0.4% drop from last quarter. Inventory levels finished the year with 4,259 homes for sale, a 30.2% drop from the same period last year and a 34.8% decline from the previous quarter. The sales pace, or average days on market, clocked in at 33 days, an 8.3% decline from the same period last year and a 10% increase from last quarter. The listing discount, or sold price vs. list price, is 97.86%, a 0.8% increase from the same period last year, and a 0.1% dip from last quarter. Overall, there is a 1.6-month supply of homes for sale on the market, a 33.3% decline from the same time last year and a 20% drop from the prior quarter.

San Gabriel Valley Fourth Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

In our third quarter recap, we noted some peripheral stats that could indicate some signs of regression in price across the San Gabriel Valley. Luckily for homeowners, those indicators didn’t lead to price drops. Instead, the market finished the year on a strong push. Lower inventory across the board helped boost prices, and even with fewer homes on the market, activity was up year-over-year (down compared to the last quarter, most likely due to seasonality), which led to a greater sales volume as well. Similar to our previous quarterly market report, there are some indicators that may temper optimism. The sales pace (average days on market) slowed by almost 10%, and the listing discount, or sold price vs. list price, was either flat or regressed a bit. However, the supply of homes is at 1.8 months, very small considering a healthy, neutral market is 6 months. We will continue to monitor the inventory level’s affect on home prices and see if some of these peripheral stats are a greater sign of things to come.

In the fourth quarter 2019, there were 1,755 homes sold across the San Gabriel Valley, a 17.2% increase from last year and 4.3% drop from last quarter. These sales turned into $1.41 billion in sales volume, a 17.8% boost year-over-year and a 1.7% slip from the prior quarter. The average closed sale price of a home finished at $803,400, a 0.5% increase from the same period last year and a 2.7% increase from third quarter. The average price per square foot was $412.70, a 0.8% increase from the same time last year and a 0.5% drop from last quarter. The sales pace, or average days on market, finished at 47 days, a 9.3% increase (slower) from both last year and last quarter. The listing discount, or sold price vs. list price, was 98.56%, the same as last year and 0.3% drop from the previous quarter. Overall, there is a 1.8-month supply of inventory, a 37.9% decrease from the same quarter last year and a 33.3% drop from last quarter.

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