Check Out Our Third Quarter Regional Glance for Southern California Real Estate

The third quarter 2019 regional glance for Southern California explores the major trends that have popped up over the first 9 months of the year. Most of our regional markets saw year-over-year increases in the number of homes sold even with drops in inventory levels. Despite these indicators, prices dipped over the last 3 months in most cases. Heading out of the peak summer months and into the fall, we see markets that are finally starting to settle on a direction. It is important to note that the summaries below take into account all of the activity in a given market. If you are seeking information on what’s happening in your city, community, or neighborhood, please reach out to a Bennion Deville Homes real estate professional to explore your options. We look forward to opening doors and unlocking possibilities for you.

Coachella Valley Third Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

In our first and second quarter recaps, we noted some price adjustments were starting to take shape quarter-over-quarter, but prices remained higher year-over-year. This most recent quarter played out exactly the same way. However, the peripheral stats indicate that things are looking up for the Southern California desert, especially when factoring in the extreme seasonal trends this market experiences. The sales pace (average days on market to sell) saw drastic declines, and the listing discount (sale price versus list price) remained steady across the board. The piece to keep an eye on is the inventory volume, which grew substantially compared to last year. Traditionally, as more inventory becomes available on the market, buyers have more options to choose from and in theory a stronger negotiating position. However, with only 1.3 months of inventory available, the market is still very much in favor of sellers looking to maximize the return on what is most likely the largest investment they have ever made. As we head into the peak sales season in the desert, traditionally starting in the fourth quarter, we will track how these general trends will impact the market.

There were 2,483 homes that gained new owners last quarter, a 17.7% drop from second quarter, but a 3.9% increase from the same period last year. Those transactions tallied a total of over $1.15 billion dollars, a 25.1% drop from the same period last year but a jump over the same quarter last year by 11.9%. The average closed sale price finished at $465,600 which is a 7.7% increase from the same time last year, but a 9.0% drop from Q2 2019. Similarly, the price per square foot finished at $231.60, a 5.1% increase over Q3 2018 but a 5.0% drop from last quarter. Inventory finished the quarter with 3,322 homes for sale, a 7.8% increase over last quarter, and a 22.5% leap from the same period last year. The sales pace (average days on market) clocked in at 80 days to sell a home, a 7.0% decrease (faster time) than last quarter and a 10.10% decrease from the same quarter last year. The listing discount (sold price versus list price) hit 96.79%, a bump of 0.5% from last quarter but a slight adjustment (0.1%) from the same period last year. Overall, there is a 1.3-month supply of homes available on the market, a 30% increase from last quarter and an 18.2% jump from the same period last year.

Orange County Third Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

Orange County saw another quarter of mixed signals in what has been an up-and-down year to date. Market activity was up across the board, but the average home price saw some minor price corrections. Additionally, inventory went down while the sales pace (average days on market) increased and listing discount (sale price versus list price) went down. Although there was more activity, the homes that sold went for a little less than the year prior, took longer to sell, and were sold at a slightly deeper discount from their original asking price. As summer ends, usually the busiest season of the year, and fall begins, we will keep a pulse on how these mixed signals take shape to finish out the year.

Overall, Orange County had 8,219 home sales last quarter, a 0.2% improvement from Q2 2019 and a significant 7.3% jump from the same quarter last year. Those transactions accounted for a total sales volume of over $7.415 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% from last quarter, but a 5.7% bump from the same period last year. The average sale price of a home finished at $902,200 which is a 0.6% decrease from last quarter and a 1.5% drop from the same time in 2018. The average price per square foot was $472.20, a 0.3% bump from last quarter and a 1.1% decrease from last year. The quarter finished with 6,676 homes on the market, an 11.8% decline from Q2 2019 and a 7.2% drop from the same period last year. The average days on market, or sales pace, clocked in at 44 days on average for a listing to sell, a modest 2.3% increase from last quarter, but an 18.9% leap from last year. The listing discount, or sold price versus list price, finished at 97.54%, a 0.2% decline from last quarter and 0.1% drop from last year. Overall, there are 2.4 months of inventory on the market, a 14.3% decrease from last quarter and a 14.3% decrease from the same timeframe last year.

San Diego Third Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

At the end of last quarter, we predicted that the San Diego market would sustain its rebound through the summer after some promising signs emerged through the first half of the year. The third quarter proved those predictions to be relatively true. There was a slight decrease in sales activity from quarter-to-quarter, but year-over-year saw significant increases in home sales. Additionally, home prices remained steady when comparing both quarterly and annual numbers. The biggest stat that we should keep an eye on is a strong drop in inventory, which may be propping up some of the other stats, such as market time and listing discount, which remained flat. With fall here, will the cooler weather also put a chill on the housing marketing in San Diego, or will fewer available homes keep the market hot through the end of the year? We will let you know in January!

San Diego saw 9,404 homes change owners in the third quarter of 2019, a 2.5% decline from last quarter, but a 4.2% increase over the same period last year. Those home sales accounted for a total sales volume of over $6.662 billion, a 2.7% decline from Q2 2019 but a 4.6% bump from Q3 2018. The average closed sale price for a home in San Diego finished the quarter at $708,500 which represents a modest 0.2% drop from last quarter and a slight increase of 0.4% over last year. The average price per square foot finished at $395.10, a 0.9% increase over last quarter, and a 1.0% climb from the same quarter last year. Third quarter finished with 6,530 homes available on the market, a 6.9% drop from second quarter of this year and a big 15.0% decline from the same quarter last year. The sales pace, or average days on market, finished at 30 days on average to sell a home, the same as last quarter and a 7.1% increase over last year. Additionally, the listing discount, or sold price versus list price, was the same as last quarter and as third quarter of last year, finishing at 97.9%. Overall, the market has a 2.1-month supply of inventory, a 4.5% drop from last quarter and a 19.2% drop from the same quarter last year.

San Gabriel Valley Third Quarter 2019 Regional Glance

Last quarter the San Gabriel Valley was showing some mixed signs, with positive signals around home prices combined with a few concerning peripherals. The third quarter of 2019 showed some of those underlying factors affect the market on the whole. The market activity was relatively stable, even showing growth quarter-over-quarter of this year but with a slight downtick from last year. Home prices saw a slight reduction against both comparison periods, despite declines in inventory. The sales pace also showed a small improvement from last quarter but was far slower than last year’s third quarter. Additionally, the listing discount took a small dip compared at both the quarter and annual levels as well. Now that the peak sales season of summer is in the rearview mirror, we should track how the dip in inventory, slowing sales pace, and somewhat deeper discounts required to get the deal done affect home prices. Although things on the surface are relatively status quo, there are signs that some price regression may be in store as we march on into fourth quarter.

Last quarter saw 1,828 homes change hands in the market, a 2.6% increase from last quarter and 2.3% decline from the same period last year. Those sales accounted for over $1.43 billion in sales volume, a 1.0% increase over last quarter and a 3.8% drop from last year. The average sale price of a home in the market finished at $782,600 which represents a 1.6% decline from Q2 2019 and a 1.5% drop from Q3 2018. However, the average price per square foot finished at $414.70, a 1.3% increase over last quarter and a 0.3% bump from the same time last year. The quarter finished with 1,639 homes for sale, a 7.7% drop from last quarter and a 4.6% decrease from third quarter of last year. The sales pace, or average days on market, was 43 days on average to sell a home, a 2.3% drop from last quarter but a 19.4% increase over last year. The listing discount, represented by the sold price versus list price, finished at a reasonable 98.85%, a 0.1% drop from last quarter and a 0.4% decline from last year. Overall, there is a less than a month’s supply of homes for sale on the market (0.9 months), a 10.0% drop from second quarter of this year and the same figure to close out third quarter of last year.