Third Quarter 2018 Real Estate Trends Indicate A Shifting Market

Third quarter 2018 real estate data for Southern California shows a cross section of markets that are in transition. Across the region, inventory is starting to loosen up while home sales are down moderately. With the release of third quarter 2018 data, we have put together a snapshot of how some of the major markets are faring. The stats take into account a variety of property types and are meant to paint a comprehensive picture of each market’s health. For the latest community/neighborhood data or to find out what your home is worth, contact one of our real estate professionals.

Coachella Valley Third Quarter 2018 Regional Glance

The Coachella Valley is traditionally about 6 months behind the coastal markets in terms of market trends, and almost on cue we are starting to see signs of a market shift. Comparing Q3 of 2018 versus the same period last year, unit sales saw a slight 1.5% increase to 2,378 homes exchanging hands this year. These transactions accounted for over $1 billion in sales volume, a 6.9% jump from last year’s numbers. The average closed sales price of a home came in at $432,000, a 5.4% jump compared to last year but a 9.9% decrease compared to Q2 of this year. Inventory across the Coachella Valley is down 15.3% compared to the same period last year, and down 12.2% compared to Q2 of this year. The average days on market for a home clocked in at 89 days, 12.7% faster than the same period last year and exactly the same as Q2 of this year. The sold price versus list price, an indication of listing price discount, increased by 0.3% to 96.8% compared to last year, and jumped 0.2% compared to Q2. Additionally, price per square foot came in at $220.30, a 5.4% leap over last year but a 4.9% drop compared to Q2 2018. Months of inventory amounted to 1.1 months, a 21.4% decline compared to last year but a 10% increase over Q2. As we head into the desert sales season, we will keep tabs on inventory levels and how they impact the market. With steadily climbing prices and the desert’s desirability as both a full and part-time market to reside, we could be in for an incredible finish to 2018.

Orange County Third Quarter 2018 Regional Glance

Continuing the trends that we have experienced so far this year, Orange County data demonstrates a shift in the market. Unit sales dipped by 11.1% compared to the same period last year, and 8.3% compared to Q2 2018, with 7,651 homes sold. These transactions tallied just shy of $7 billion in sales volume, a 3.2% decline compared to a year ago and down 9.3% from Q2. The average closed sales price was $914,700, an 8.8% jump compared to last year but a slight (1.1%) dip compared to Q2 2018. Despite drops in unit sales, inventory increased steadily, with 7,196 units on the market. This is a 33.2% leap compared to the same time last year and a 13% increase over Q2 2018 levels. Homes are still selling very quickly, with an average days on market of 37 days, the same as last year and 19.4% slower than Q2 2018. Additionally, the sold price versus list price came in at 97.7%, down by 0.3% compared to the same time last year and 0.5% compared to Q2 of 2018. The average price per square foot, $477.40, was up by 7.6% compared to a year ago but down 1% compared to Q2. Factoring in sales pace and inventory levels, the months of inventory jumped to 2.8 months, a 47.4% increase over last year and a 21.7% uptick compared to Q2 of this year. With dips in the number of sales but more inventory coming to the market, Orange County continues to head back toward market equilibrium. As more inventory becomes available, prices should also see a correction. It will be interesting to see if the addition of more homes on the market, coupled with lower prices, is enough to get those who have been sitting on the sidelines to make their move.

San Diego Third Quarter 2018 Regional Glance

Checking in on the San Diego real estate market after three quarters, the trends are consistent with many of the other markets in Southern California. Closed unit sales came in at 8,894, down by 10.8% year-over-year and down 11.9% compared with Q2 of this year. Those unit sales accounted for over $6.2 billion, a 4.3% dip from the same time last year and an 11% drop from the previous quarter. Interestingly, though, the average closed price of a home in San Diego County came in at $706,900, a 7.4% jump from the same time last year and a 1% uptick from Q2. Inventory also jumped considerably with 7,682 units available, a 40.2% increase from last year and a 17.6% jump from last quarter. The pace of sales went up as well, with the average days on market for a listing clocking in at 28 days, up from 26 in 2017 and 24 in Q2 2018. Listing discount (sold price versus list price) was 97.9%, the same as last year and down slightly from the previous quarter. With a slower sales pace and increased inventory, the months of inventory on the market rose to 2.6, up considerably from the 1.6 months from the same period last year and 1.9 from just a quarter ago. Factoring in all of the trends (rising prices, rising inventory, and rising days on market), San Diego is very much a market in transition. The big question becomes how much the rising inventory will affect home prices, and whether those who were waiting out the market decide if now is the time to make their move.

San Gabriel Valley Third Quarter 2018 Regional Glance

The San Gabriel Valley is mirroring trends in the other major Southern California markets so far this year. There were 1,865 closed units in Q3, a decline of 8.7% from the same period last year a 2.9% drop from Q2 of 2018. Those unit sales accounted for just shy of $1.5 billion in sales volume, a 2.9% drop from last year and a 4.3% drop from the previous quarter. The average sales price came in at $794,500, a 6.3% increase from the same time last year and a slight 1.4% drop from Q2 2018. Inventory hit 1,718 homes available, a 20.60% jump from the same period last year, and an 8.1% climb from the previous quarter. Days on market held relative to last quarter at 36 days on average and came in at a slightly quicker pace than the same time last year. Listing discount also hovered around the same level, coming in at 99.3% for the current quarter, a 0.1% improvement from the same period last year and a 0.2% drop from last quarter. Based on the sales pace and inventory levels, the months of inventory stands at 0.9, up 28.6% from last year and up 12.5% from last quarter. With climbing inventory and a dip in sales, this market is also in transition. As more homeowners put their homes up for sale, we will see how this extra inventory affects home prices and market conditions start to favor buyers.