Our October 2018 Regional Glance

Our October 2018 regional glance around the Southern California real estate market shows that our region is very much in a phase of correction. With many major markets seeing declines in sales and rising inventory levels, a period of transition is under way. As a reminder, the numbers below include all property types for each market and demonstrate the overall direction of a region. For up-to-date information specific to your real estate needs, please get in touch with a local Bennion Deville Homes real estate professional who can help open doors and unlock possibilities for you.

Coachella Valley October 2018 Regional Glance

Now that summer is officially over and the desert real estate season has begun, we are starting to see the traditional signs of the fall and winter market take shape. Year-over-year, closed sales were roughly the same, with a 0.8% increase, accounting for $344,208,000 in total sales volume, up 9% compared to the same period in 2017. The average closed sales price came in at $444,100, an 8.1% jump, and the price per square foot rose by 6.8%, coming in at $227.40. At the same time, inventory is down by 14% compared to last year, and the sales pace (average days on market) was 83 days, selling 14.4% faster than in October of 2017. Combining inventory levels and pace of sales, we arrive at 3.9 months of inventory, a 15.2% decrease from last year’s inventory level. The trend to watch in this resort market is the inventory level. As more seasonal residents return, and list their homes, we may see the market shift from what is now a seller’s market back toward equilibrium. We will have a better picture come January 2019 once the holidays are behind us and the desert season is in full swing.

Orange County October 2018 Regional Glance

As we have tracked for months now, Orange County is well on its way to shifting back toward a buyer’s market. Data from October further demonstrates the transition, with closed units down by 8.2% (2,334 closed units in October of 2018) and sales volume down by 4.7%, with a total volume of $2,088,887,000. Despite dips in these areas, the average closed sale price increased by 3.8% year-over-year to $895,000 and the average price per square foot came in at $469 (a 2% uptick). The sales pace remained relatively the same year-over-year, coming in at 43 days on market (1 day slower than last year), and sold price versus list price was slightly better, with 97.7% compared to 97.5% last year. Additionally, available inventory finished the month at 7,195 units, a whopping 45% jump from October of 2017, accounting for a 3.1-month supply of inventory (up 55% from 2017). With major gains in inventory and stable metrics in price, sales pace, and listing discount, Orange County is starting to see the market open up. Now that additional inventory is flooding the market, we need to see how this added product will affect home prices overall as it may lead to some price regression. However, it is a good sign that prices remain buoyed so far.

San Diego October 2018 Regional Glance

Mirroring what is happening in Orange County, the San Diego real estate market is moving back toward a buyer’s market. The number of homes exchanging hands in October 2018 came in at 2,656 – a 15.7% drop from the same time last year. As a result, the total sales volume took a 7.10% hit, coming in at $1,897,761,000. Despite dips in these metrics, the average closed sales price jumped 10.2% to $714,500 and the price per square foot came in 8.6% higher at $397.90. Sales pace slowed down by 13.8% compared to last year, coming in at 33 days on market, and the listing discount dropped by a whole percentage point to 96.7% compared to 97.7% last year. The truly refreshing stats from October are inventory levels, which closed with 7,678 units, a 45.6% jump from last year, accounting for a 2.9-month supply of inventory (70.6% higher than in 2017). The dip in list price versus sold price indicates that the market is slightly overpriced in the eyes of buyers, but not enough to have a serious decrease on buyer demand for listings. As inventory levels rise, we may see home prices level off as sellers need to be more realistic with their pricing in order to attract serious homebuyers.

San Gabriel Valley October 2018 Regional Glance

Echoing similar trends covered in the other Southern California regions, the San Gabriel Valley real estate market is showing signs of a swing back toward a favorable market to buyers. Closed unit sales dipped by 3.7% compared to last year, tallying 578 total sales. Despite the drop in units closed, the closed sales volume climbed by 5.5% to $471,339,000. Meanwhile, the average closed sales price hit $815,500, up 9.5% compared to the same period last year, and the average price per square foot saw a jump of 6.8% to $411.80. Despite gains in home prices, the listing discount dropped to 98% (down from 98.7% last year), and the sale pace slowed a bit to 42 average days on market, a 7.7% decline. Inventory saw incredible leaps, closing out the month with 1,776 units available, a 35.3% increase. Accounting for available inventory and the slowing sales pace helped push the months of inventory to 3.1, up by 40.9% compared to last year. Just like the case of San Diego’s market, sellers are listing their homes slightly higher than the market calls for, which is why we saw a drop in sold versus list price. However, overall prices are steadily increasing along with inventory. We will keep an eye on home prices as inventory is added to the market and buyers have more options.